FI
FAIR ISAAC CORP (FICO)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 FY25 revenue was $515.8M (+14% YoY) and GAAP EPS was $6.42; non-GAAP EPS was $7.74. Both revenue and EPS modestly exceeded Wall Street consensus, with EPS a clear beat and revenue a slight beat . Consensus EPS: $7.36*; consensus revenue: $513.9M*.
- Scores segment strength was the driver: $311.6M (+25% YoY) on B2B price uplift in mortgage; Software was flat at $204.2M with 17% platform growth offset by declines in non-platform legacy products .
- FY26 guidance introduced and framed as “even stronger growth than FY25”: revenue $2.35B, GAAP EPS $33.47, non-GAAP EPS $38.17; management highlighted pricing initiatives could add upside beyond guided numbers but timing/volume uncertainty remains .
- Cash generation remained robust: Q4 free cash flow $210.8M; FY25 FCF $739.4M (+22% YoY), with elevated buybacks ($536M in Q4; $1.41B FY25) underpinning capital returns .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Scores momentum and pricing: Scores revenue $311.6M (+25% YoY); B2B +29% on higher mortgage origination score unit price; B2C +8% via myFICO and channel partners .
- Record sales execution in software: ACV bookings $32.7M, best quarterly performance since disclosure began; FY ACV $102M—the strongest annual level—supporting ARR acceleration in FY26 as deals go live .
- Margin expansion and confident FY26 outlook: Non-GAAP operating margin 54% vs 52% last year; “guiding even stronger growth than we achieved in fiscal 2025” .
Management quotes:
- “I am very proud of our performance in FY25, another record year for FICO… pleased to provide FY26 guidance, which includes even stronger growth than we achieved in FY25.” — CEO Will Lansing .
- “We expect some of the pricing initiatives in 2026 to have an additional impact beyond our guided numbers.” — CEO Will Lansing .
What Went Wrong
- Sequential revenue down from Q3 due to lower point-in-time revenues (scores & software licenses), seasonality, and lower professional services .
- Platform ARR performance tempered by usage reductions from select CCS customers; total Software ARR +4% YoY to $747M with platform +16% and non-platform −2% .
- $10.9M restructuring charge impacted GAAP results; interest expense increased; guidance conservatism driven by macro and mortgage “trigger leads” uncertainty .
Financial Results
Headline Metrics vs YoY, Sequential, and Street (Q4 FY25)
Values retrieved from S&P Global for estimate figures.*
Segment Revenue Breakdown
Additional segment KPIs (Q4 FY25 commentary):
- B2B Scores +29% YoY on mortgage score unit price; B2C +8% YoY .
- Software platform revenue +17% YoY; non-platform −7% YoY within quarter .
KPIs and Cash Generation
Capital structure and returns (Q4 FY25):
- Total debt $3.06B; weighted avg interest rate 5.27%; revolver balance $275M .
- Share repurchases: 358k shares at $1,499 avg ($536M in Q4; $1.41B FY25) .
Guidance Changes
Qualitative guidance nuance:
- Management expects pricing initiatives in FY26 may add upside beyond guided figures, but volume/timing uncertain .
- Scores guidance assumes no significant macro improvement; no loss of market share anticipated in auto/card/personal loan .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategic push on platform and GenAI: “We announced upcoming general availability of next-generation FICO Platform… and the groundbreaking FICO Marketplace.”
- Domain-specific GenAI leadership: “FICO FFM… delivers accurate and auditable outcomes… more than 35% lift in transaction analytic models… up to 1,000 times fewer resources compared to conventional GenAI models.”
- Mortgage market modernization: “Our FICO Mortgage Direct License Program… provides optionality with performance and per-score models… eliminating reliance on the three nationwide credit bureaus.”
- Guidance confidence with prudence: “We expect some of the pricing initiatives in 2026 to have an additional impact beyond our guided numbers… it’s difficult to estimate the timing and magnitude.”
Q&A Highlights
- FHFA/GSEs and 10T: Constructive FHFA dialogue; confident 10T will be released at GSEs; timing unspecified .
- Direct license pricing cadence: Guidance conservative given performance model’s payment timing (funding date) and mix uncertainty; potential spillover of fees into FY27 .
- Resellers/bureau pricing: Reseller fee structures TBD; FICO does not control reseller mark-ups .
- Non-mortgage pricing: Expect inflation-plus adjustments; selective segments above COLA; no dramatic changes .
- ARR conversion: Bookings expected to convert to ARR as early as Q1 FY26 .
- Mortgage volumes & trigger leads: Guidance haircut due to uncertainty; easier to raise than lower guidance; market share retention expected .
Estimates Context
- Q4 FY25 actual vs consensus: Revenue $515.8M vs $513.9M*; non-GAAP EPS $7.74 vs $7.36*; GAAP EPS $6.42 vs non-GAAP consensus reference—company emphasizes non-GAAP for comparability . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Trend vs prior quarters: Q3 FY25 beat on both revenue and EPS; Q2 FY25 EPS beat with slight revenue miss .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implications: Models should lift FY26 revenue/EPS and Scores pricing assumptions; however, mortgage volume sensitivity, performance-fee timing, and platform usage temper over-exuberance .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Scores remains the engine: price-led growth and mortgage origination mix drove a strong quarter; expect continued monetization from direct licensing optionality and potential downstream usage capture via funded-loan fees .
- Software acceleration setup: record ACV and planned go-lives point to ARR uptick in FY26; platform NRR 112% supports land-and-expand thesis .
- FY26 guide is strong yet conservative: explicit upside from pricing initiatives not fully embedded given volume/timing uncertainty; room for upward revisions as reseller mix and payment timing normalize .
- Watch mortgage macro and “trigger leads”: volumes remain rate-sensitive; guidance haircuts reflect caution—rate declines would be upside, but not modeled .
- Capital allocation: robust FCF and buybacks continue; debt cost manageable at 5.27%—supports EPS growth but monitor interest expense trend .
- Regulatory posture favorable: constructive FHFA dialogue; expectation of FICO 10T availability at GSEs could reinforce competitive moat and adoption .
- Near-term trading setup: modest beat and confident FY26 guide with structural pricing narrative are positive; any concrete reseller commercialization updates (e.g., Xactus go-live) could be catalysts .
Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q4 FY25)
- FICO and Xactus multi-year partnership confirming participation in the FICO Mortgage Direct License Program (first verification provider) .
- Launch of FICO Mortgage Direct License Program with performance and per-score models; up to 50% per-score fee savings via elimination of bureau mark-ups .
Notes on non-GAAP adjustments: Q4 non-GAAP net income and EPS add back restructuring ($10.9M) and share-based comp, and adjust for tax items and excess tax benefit; reconciliation provided in the release .