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FAIR ISAAC CORP (FICO)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 FY25 revenue was $515.8M (+14% YoY) and GAAP EPS was $6.42; non-GAAP EPS was $7.74. Both revenue and EPS modestly exceeded Wall Street consensus, with EPS a clear beat and revenue a slight beat . Consensus EPS: $7.36*; consensus revenue: $513.9M*.
  • Scores segment strength was the driver: $311.6M (+25% YoY) on B2B price uplift in mortgage; Software was flat at $204.2M with 17% platform growth offset by declines in non-platform legacy products .
  • FY26 guidance introduced and framed as “even stronger growth than FY25”: revenue $2.35B, GAAP EPS $33.47, non-GAAP EPS $38.17; management highlighted pricing initiatives could add upside beyond guided numbers but timing/volume uncertainty remains .
  • Cash generation remained robust: Q4 free cash flow $210.8M; FY25 FCF $739.4M (+22% YoY), with elevated buybacks ($536M in Q4; $1.41B FY25) underpinning capital returns .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Scores momentum and pricing: Scores revenue $311.6M (+25% YoY); B2B +29% on higher mortgage origination score unit price; B2C +8% via myFICO and channel partners .
  • Record sales execution in software: ACV bookings $32.7M, best quarterly performance since disclosure began; FY ACV $102M—the strongest annual level—supporting ARR acceleration in FY26 as deals go live .
  • Margin expansion and confident FY26 outlook: Non-GAAP operating margin 54% vs 52% last year; “guiding even stronger growth than we achieved in fiscal 2025” .

Management quotes:

  • “I am very proud of our performance in FY25, another record year for FICO… pleased to provide FY26 guidance, which includes even stronger growth than we achieved in FY25.” — CEO Will Lansing .
  • “We expect some of the pricing initiatives in 2026 to have an additional impact beyond our guided numbers.” — CEO Will Lansing .

What Went Wrong

  • Sequential revenue down from Q3 due to lower point-in-time revenues (scores & software licenses), seasonality, and lower professional services .
  • Platform ARR performance tempered by usage reductions from select CCS customers; total Software ARR +4% YoY to $747M with platform +16% and non-platform −2% .
  • $10.9M restructuring charge impacted GAAP results; interest expense increased; guidance conservatism driven by macro and mortgage “trigger leads” uncertainty .

Financial Results

Headline Metrics vs YoY, Sequential, and Street (Q4 FY25)

MetricQ4 2024Q3 2025Q4 2025Consensus Q4 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$453.8 $536.4 $515.8 $513.9*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$5.44 $7.40 $6.42 $7.36*
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$6.54 $8.57 $7.74 n/a
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)$135.7 $181.8 $155.0 n/a
Non-GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)$163.2 $210.6 $187.0 n/a
Non-GAAP Operating Margin (%)52% n/a54% n/a

Values retrieved from S&P Global for estimate figures.*

Segment Revenue Breakdown

Segment / LineQ4 2024 ($M)Q3 2025 ($M)Q4 2025 ($M)
Scores$249.2 $324.3 $311.6
Software (Total)$204.6 $212.1 $204.2
On-premises & SaaS$181.7 $187.9 $182.4
Professional Services$22.9 $24.2 $21.8

Additional segment KPIs (Q4 FY25 commentary):

  • B2B Scores +29% YoY on mortgage score unit price; B2C +8% YoY .
  • Software platform revenue +17% YoY; non-platform −7% YoY within quarter .

KPIs and Cash Generation

KPIQ4 2024Q4 2025
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$219.4 $210.8
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)$226.5 $223.7
Software ARR ($USD Millions)n/a$747 (+4% YoY)
Platform ARR ($USD Millions)n/a$263 (+16% YoY)
Non-Platform ARR ($USD Millions)n/a$484 (−2% YoY)
Dollar-Based NRR (Total / Platform / Non-Platform)n/a102% / 112% / 97%
ACV Bookings ($USD Millions)$22.1 $32.7

Capital structure and returns (Q4 FY25):

  • Total debt $3.06B; weighted avg interest rate 5.27%; revolver balance $275M .
  • Share repurchases: 358k shares at $1,499 avg ($536M in Q4; $1.41B FY25) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($)FY2025$1.98B $1.98B (maintained in Q3 update) Maintained
GAAP Net Income ($)FY2025$624M $630M Raised
GAAP EPS ($)FY2025$25.05 $25.60 Raised
Non-GAAP Net Income ($)FY2025$712M $718M Raised
Non-GAAP EPS ($)FY2025$28.58 $29.15 Raised
Revenue ($)FY2026n/a$2.35B New
GAAP Net Income ($)FY2026n/a$795M New
GAAP EPS ($)FY2026n/a$33.47 New
Non-GAAP Net Income ($)FY2026n/a$907M New
Non-GAAP EPS ($)FY2026n/a$38.17 New
Tax Rate (Net Effective / Operating)FY2026n/a24% / 25% New
Operating Expenses YoY GrowthFY2026n/aSimilar YoY growth vs FY25 New

Qualitative guidance nuance:

  • Management expects pricing initiatives in FY26 may add upside beyond guided figures, but volume/timing uncertain .
  • Scores guidance assumes no significant macro improvement; no loss of market share anticipated in auto/card/personal loan .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2025)Previous Mentions (Q3 2025)Current Period (Q4 2025)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesPlatform ARR +17% YoY; total ARR +3% YoY Platform revenue momentum; groundwork for next-gen platform GA of FICO Focused Foundation Model (FFM: FLM, FSM); 35% lift in fraud analytics; 1,000x fewer resources vs conventional GenAI Accelerating innovation
Mortgage ecosystem & pricingFY25 guidance reiterated; B2B price-driven growth Raised FY25 guidance; insurance score license renewal Direct License Program details; performance model ($4.95 per score + funded loan fee); Zactus partnership; optionality vs bureaus Structural shift underway
Software commercial momentumARR +3% YoY; steady NRR Continued ARR growth; bookings improving Best quarterly ACV bookings ($32.7M); FY bookings $102M; ARR expected to accelerate in FY26 as deals go live Improving
Regional mixn/an/aAmericas 87%, EMEA 8%, APAC 5% of Q4 revenue Stable
Regulatory/Policy (FHFA/GSEs)n/an/aConstructive FHFA engagement; expectation 10T will be made available at GSEs (timing not specified) Positive momentum, timing TBD
Pricing across non-mortgage scoresn/an/aModest increases (inflation-plus) across segments; select areas above COLA Stable to modestly higher

Management Commentary

  • Strategic push on platform and GenAI: “We announced upcoming general availability of next-generation FICO Platform… and the groundbreaking FICO Marketplace.”
  • Domain-specific GenAI leadership: “FICO FFM… delivers accurate and auditable outcomes… more than 35% lift in transaction analytic models… up to 1,000 times fewer resources compared to conventional GenAI models.”
  • Mortgage market modernization: “Our FICO Mortgage Direct License Program… provides optionality with performance and per-score models… eliminating reliance on the three nationwide credit bureaus.”
  • Guidance confidence with prudence: “We expect some of the pricing initiatives in 2026 to have an additional impact beyond our guided numbers… it’s difficult to estimate the timing and magnitude.”

Q&A Highlights

  • FHFA/GSEs and 10T: Constructive FHFA dialogue; confident 10T will be released at GSEs; timing unspecified .
  • Direct license pricing cadence: Guidance conservative given performance model’s payment timing (funding date) and mix uncertainty; potential spillover of fees into FY27 .
  • Resellers/bureau pricing: Reseller fee structures TBD; FICO does not control reseller mark-ups .
  • Non-mortgage pricing: Expect inflation-plus adjustments; selective segments above COLA; no dramatic changes .
  • ARR conversion: Bookings expected to convert to ARR as early as Q1 FY26 .
  • Mortgage volumes & trigger leads: Guidance haircut due to uncertainty; easier to raise than lower guidance; market share retention expected .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 FY25 actual vs consensus: Revenue $515.8M vs $513.9M*; non-GAAP EPS $7.74 vs $7.36*; GAAP EPS $6.42 vs non-GAAP consensus reference—company emphasizes non-GAAP for comparability . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Trend vs prior quarters: Q3 FY25 beat on both revenue and EPS; Q2 FY25 EPS beat with slight revenue miss .
MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Revenue Estimate ($M)500.6*515.4*513.9*
Revenue Actual ($M)498.7 536.4 515.8
EPS Estimate ($)7.44*7.70*7.36*
EPS Actual (Non-GAAP) ($)7.81 8.57 7.74

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: Models should lift FY26 revenue/EPS and Scores pricing assumptions; however, mortgage volume sensitivity, performance-fee timing, and platform usage temper over-exuberance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Scores remains the engine: price-led growth and mortgage origination mix drove a strong quarter; expect continued monetization from direct licensing optionality and potential downstream usage capture via funded-loan fees .
  • Software acceleration setup: record ACV and planned go-lives point to ARR uptick in FY26; platform NRR 112% supports land-and-expand thesis .
  • FY26 guide is strong yet conservative: explicit upside from pricing initiatives not fully embedded given volume/timing uncertainty; room for upward revisions as reseller mix and payment timing normalize .
  • Watch mortgage macro and “trigger leads”: volumes remain rate-sensitive; guidance haircuts reflect caution—rate declines would be upside, but not modeled .
  • Capital allocation: robust FCF and buybacks continue; debt cost manageable at 5.27%—supports EPS growth but monitor interest expense trend .
  • Regulatory posture favorable: constructive FHFA dialogue; expectation of FICO 10T availability at GSEs could reinforce competitive moat and adoption .
  • Near-term trading setup: modest beat and confident FY26 guide with structural pricing narrative are positive; any concrete reseller commercialization updates (e.g., Xactus go-live) could be catalysts .

Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q4 FY25)

  • FICO and Xactus multi-year partnership confirming participation in the FICO Mortgage Direct License Program (first verification provider) .
  • Launch of FICO Mortgage Direct License Program with performance and per-score models; up to 50% per-score fee savings via elimination of bureau mark-ups .

Notes on non-GAAP adjustments: Q4 non-GAAP net income and EPS add back restructuring ($10.9M) and share-based comp, and adjust for tax items and excess tax benefit; reconciliation provided in the release .